Great Expectations: Previewing the 2014 Auburn Tigers

In his introductory press conference as Auburn’s newest football coach, Gus Malzahn confidently uttered the following words: “Our expectations are going to be high.” He continued by declaring that his goal was “to play championship football like Auburn expects.” While the expectations may have been high internally, on the outside Auburn fans were just hoping for a winning season. Merely getting back to a bowl game would have been a big accomplishment for a first year head coach. But Gus Malzahn had bigger plans; it just took some of us longer than others to see his vision.

I was optimistic that Auburn could finish with an 8-5 record and maybe get back to the Chick Fil A Bowl. But on August 31, 2013, my optimism quickly turned into disappointment. The marketing campaign around the 2013 football season was that it was “A New Day,” and the game against Washington State was the first chance for Auburn fans to determine exactly what that meant. I’ll never forget sitting in the press box of Jordan-Hare Stadium before kickoff. Even if it was only for a few hours, Auburn was technically undefeated, and that was an exciting feeling (I mean 0-0 is better than 3-9, right?) I was stunned by what happened next. Washington State received the opening kickoff and in twelve plays marched right down the field for a touchdown. 7-0 Cougars. I remember turning next to my colleague Kasey Langley and whispering, “so much for all that New Day crap.” Auburn came back to win the game in unconvincing fashion 31-24.

For Auburn fans, a narrow win over Washington State was just the beginning of what might go down as the greatest and most memorable season in the history of Auburn Football. We all know what happened next. The heart-stopping win over Mississippi State. The narrow loss in the swamp-like conditions of Baton Rouge. The thrilling upset in College Station. The Miracle in Jordan-Hare. The Kick-Six. The Shootout in Atlanta. And for the sake of preventing negative flashbacks, we’ll

pretend like the season ended right there (note: I still haven’t watched the TV broadcast of the BCS Championship Game). But this article isn’t about reliving the great moments from last season. It’s about zeroing in on the 2014 Auburn Tigers and how the team can possibly deal with the expectations of a second consecutive SEC Championship…and a possible return to the title game.

Historically speaking, high preseason expectations for Auburn have not resulted in disappointment on the field. But Gus Malzahn and the Auburn Tigers have a special confidence about them. They believe the expectations should be high –because they have some serious unfinished business. After the devastating loss to Florida State in the BCS Title Game, Gus Malzahn had a very interesting quote. “I’m going to tell you right now. We’re going to go back.” That’s a very unusual comment from a coach that plays his cards very close to the vest…well…sweater vest. But Malzahn believes that the Tigers have everything that it takes to get back to the last game, and it’s hard to disagree with him.

Auburn returns eight starters on offense and seven starters on defense. That would seem like a big plus, if it wasn’t for the fact that the three offensive starters were Tre Mason, Greg Robinson, and Jay Prosch− three of the biggest components of the best rushing attack in the country a season ago. Fortunately for Auburn, the Tigers will have star quarterback and early 2014 Heisman candidate in Nick Marshall. Here’s your jaw-dropping stat of the day: Nick Marshall will be the first returning quarterback that Gus Malzahn has coached since he first broke into the college game as Offensive Coordinator at Arkansas in 2006 (despite the fact that Nick Marshall won’t technically “start” the season, the concept still applies).

Why Auburn Can Win It All: 

Despite losing a few key starters on offense and defense (Tre Mason, Greg Robinson, Jay Prosch, Dee Ford, Ryan Smith, Ryan White, Chris Davis, etc) Auburn still returns the core of its 2013 SEC Championship team. In fact, you could make a strong argument that this team is better. Think about it: a full offseason for a coaching staff that successfully completed one of the greatest turnarounds in the history of college football. Even with losing a few marquee players, you would expect Auburn to improve on both sides of the ball. Auburn wants to have the best offense in the country, and with new wide out D’haquille “Duke” Williams, the Tigers have a chance of becoming just that. Cameron-Artis Payne will likely carry the load between the tackles, but expect a much more balanced offense in Nick Marshall’s second year. In addition to Artis-Payne, the Tigers have a bevy of talented backs, including Corey Grant, Roc Thomas, and Peyton Barber. Tre Mason may be a house-hold name, but success of Auburn’s running game comes more from the scheme than

anything else. Remember what Tre Mason did before the Tigers started running the read option with Nick Marshall? He didn’t rush for 100 yards in a game until week four. When defenses can’t key in on the running back because of the threat of the QB option, running between the tackle gets a lot easier. There may be a drop off in rushing statistics, but don’t expect much. On the defensive side of the ball, Auburn is already facing the challenge of preseason injuries. The Tigers have already lost standout DE Carl Lawson for the majority of the 2014 season and there’s a laundry listed of other players that are banged up from spring and fall practice. But another year for Rodney Gardner and Ellis Johnson should be enough for Auburn to put at least an average defense on the field. And with the potency of the Auburn offense, that should be enough to get the job done. Despite the strength of the schedule, there isn’t an overwhelming favorite in the SEC this year and Auburn has everything it takes to repeat as conference champions.

Why Auburn Can’t Win It All:
I can make this entire argument in three word: strength of schedule. Auburn faces seven teams ranked in the preseason Top 25, most of any program in the country. The six-week stretch of South Carolina, at Ole Miss, Texas A&M, at Georgia, Samford, and at Alabama is arguably the most grueling of any team in the SEC. While Auburn could still qualify for the SEC Championship and College Football Playoff with an early or midseason loss, the difficulty of this schedule makes more than one loss seem like a very realistic possibility. Not only is the schedule brutal, but Auburn faces another challenge that flying under the radar this offseason. Despite not punting as often as most teams, special teams execution was a critical component to Auburn’s success in 2013. The Tigers lose punter Steven Clark and place kicker Cody Parkey for 2014. Both roles will be taken on this season by redshirt freshman kicker Daniel Carlson. That’s a lot to ask of a freshman kicker, and a few botched plays on special teams could be the difference between winning and losing close games. The defense will be the weakness of this football team, and if the offense sputters in a few games, the Tigers could quickly find themselves with enough losses to knock them out of the championship picture. In 2013, Auburn played spoiler to several teams. This year, the Tigers will have a target on their back – meaning they will get the best shot from every team that they play (especially teams like Mississippi State, Georgia, and Alabama who all have revenge on their mind). Auburn will also have to deal with the pressure of expectations. It’s easy to play loose when there are no expectations. Expect Auburn to play much tighter under the pressures of a high pre-season ranking and SEC Championship hopes.

The Takeaway

In conclusion, the purpose of this article is not to tell you why I think Auburn is going to win the national championship this year. The objective of this piece is to encourage everyone to take a step back and appreciate just how far we’ve come in one season. From a narrow victory over Washington State to being 13 seconds away from a National Champion, last season gave us the greatest thrill of our lives. We witnessed what will go down as arguably the greatest season in Auburn Football history. Let’s not greedy and be disappointed by anything short of another SEC Championship and a return to the National Championship Game. It’s very hard to live up to high expectations, but for the first time since I’ve been at Auburn…it just feels good to have those expectations. That’s what college football is all about: the hope and the hype. Let’s all just enjoy the ride.

Posted by Michael Pelfrey on 8/22/2014